Decision topic

Northstar Demand Execution

Decision prep in progress

Facts on the table

Demand

Observed fact

1,200 units · $12.0M

Base production

Calculated result

700 units · $7.0M

Components

Observed fact

850 units · $8.5M

Root cause

Analyst judgment

Demand was accepted into the forecast before cross-functional operational validation. Finance, sales, purchasing, and operations each held individually reasonable information — a confirmed customer request, committed component volume, and a fully loaded production plan — that had not been reconciled.

Recovery options

0 of 3 resolved · validated evidence only

Overtime

Not investigated

Effect: +150 production units · +$1.5M revenue capacity
Cost: $180K cost
Dependency: Requires additional quality inspection

Not yet investigated — excluded from the executable plan.

Weekend shift

Not investigated

Effect: +150 production units · +$1.5M revenue capacity
Cost: $300K cost
Dependency: Staffing must be validated

Not yet investigated — excluded from the executable plan.

Supplier expedite

Not investigated

Effect: +200 control modules · components rise 850 → 1,050
Cost: $100K cost
Dependency: Does not directly add production revenue

Not yet investigated — excluded from the executable plan.

Outsourcing

Not applicable — no capacity

Effect: 0 units this planning window
Cost: No cost incurred
Dependency: Partner qualification timing

07_Operations_Commentary.docxValidated business response

07_Operations_Commentary.docx, Recovery Options section, paragraph 4

Outsourcing assessment result

External partner qualification requires 10–12 weeks, including first-article inspection.

Qualification cannot complete within this planning window.

Outcome: 0 units available for February — not feasible.

Assessed — no capacity available this planning window. Does not block readiness.

Likely reviewer questions

Same facts, three different lenses. Prepared responses live in the Executive Brief.

Focus: Forecast integrity, financial impact, confirmed vs. assumed

How much of the $12.0M is confirmed executable versus assumed?
What changed between the original forecast and this recommendation?
Which figures are observed facts and which are assumptions?
What is the profit impact of the mitigation plan?

Executable plan

Calculated result

Updates from validated evidence only.

Demand: 1,200 units · $12.0M
Production capacity: 700 units
Component support: 850 units
Executable: 700 units · $7.0M
Unsupported forecast: $5.0M
Binding constraint: Production capacity
Mitigation cost (confirmed): $0

Executable = minimum of demand (1,200), production units, and component units, at $10,000 per unit.

Profit impact

Unknown

Profit impact cannot yet be calculated reliably; approved gross-margin evidence is required.

Recommendation

Recommendation locked. Validate the recovery options first — unvalidated capacity never enters the executable plan.